Currently, the team has an expected goals (xG) value of just over 19, against the actual 14 achieved.

Roma continues to struggle offensively, a problem that is increasingly becoming more evident and perhaps helps to better understand an already complicated start to the season. Since Claudio Ranieri’s arrival, the team has managed to improve its defensive phase, which under the guidance of Ivan Juric seemed quite troubled (with 14 goals conceded in 8 championship matches). However, the need to address a significant drop in productivity in the final meters is now apparent. With just 14 goals scored in 14 matches, the yellow-and-reds find themselves far from their initial championship ambitions, which were aimed at a return to the Champions League. Over the years, the offense has often been the strength of Roma. Just think of the 27 goals scored in the first 14 matches of last season, the 31 in 2020-2021, or, even more impressively, the 33 in 2016-2017. To find a data point similar to the current one, you have to delve back into the 2011-2012 season, when Luis Enrique’s team netted 15 goals. This isn’t just about scoring more, but creating more opportunities. Currently, the team posts an expected goals (xG) value just over 19, compared to the 14 actually achieved. This figure not only highlights difficulties in finalization, but also a lack of ability to create opportunities, proving inferior not just to the main competitors for Europe (Napoli, Atalanta, Lazio, and so on). But even to teams with different goals like Cagliari, Bologna and Parma. Ranieri, aware of the need for a change of pace, highlighted in a press conference the importance of this upcoming month, describing it as make or break: “December will tell us who we are.” To achieve this, however, it will be indispensable for the offensive department to regain its incisiveness, transforming the few opportunities created into decisive goals to climb up the league table and straighten up a season that risks becoming even more complicated.

Valentino Poggio